Oscar Predictions 2027: The First Forecast

The 2026-2027 Academy Awards season is officially underway, with major film festivals such as Venice, Telluride, Toronto, and New York setting the stage for cinematic excellence. As the industry's focus shifts towards recognizing outstanding achievements, Scott Feinberg, Executive Editor of Awards Coverage at The Hollywood Reporter, presents his inaugural Feinberg Forecast. This comprehensive analysis offers a preliminary look at the films and individuals poised to dominate the Oscar race, drawing on critical reception, commercial performance, festival buzz, and historical voting patterns.

Feinberg's approach is distinctively rooted in actual viewings, ensuring that only films he has personally seen are included in his rankings. This commitment to firsthand experience aims to provide an honest and insightful assessment of the competition. Already, several films have made significant waves at earlier festivals like Sundance, Berlin, and Cannes, while others have achieved notable box office success in U.S. theaters. These early contenders are now joined by a fresh wave of premieres at the fall festivals, creating a dynamic and highly competitive landscape.

The forecast delves into various key categories, offering detailed commentary on the frontrunners and major threats. For Best Picture, Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" emerges as a strong contender, boasting both critical acclaim and impressive global box office numbers. However, other films like "Project Hail Mary," "La Bola Negra," "Fjord," and "The Invite" are also highlighted as significant contenders, each with unique strengths and festival accolades. The potential for a quirky film like "Wild Horse Nine," following in the footsteps of Martin McDonagh's previous Academy-embraced works, is also noted. Furthermore, the forecast considers the impact of films uploaded to the Academy's streaming service, the Academy Screening Room, noting that early exposure can significantly influence nominations.

In the Best Director category, Christopher Nolan is favored for "The Odyssey," but he faces strong competition from creative duos like Phil Lord and Chris Miller ("Project Hail Mary") and Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo ("La Bola Negra"). The increasing recognition of non-English language films in this category brings directors such as Cristian Mungiu ("Fjord"), Pawel Pawlikowski ("Fatherland"), Ryusuke Hamaguchi ("All of a Sudden"), and Andrey Zvyagintsev ("Minotaur") into focus. The directors' branch also shows an affinity for breakthrough young filmmakers and revered veterans, adding Olivia Wilde ("The Invite") and Mike Leigh ("Tender Loving Care") to the list of notable mentions.

The acting categories, Best Actor and Best Actress, present a fascinating mix of established stars and breakout talents. For Best Actor, John Malkovich in "Wild Horse Nine" is seen as a strong contender, potentially earning a long-overdue win. Matt Damon ("The Odyssey"), Ryan Gosling ("Project Hail Mary"), and Sebastian Stan ("Fjord") are also recognized. The rise of newcomers like Jaafar Jackson in "Michael" and the sustained excellence of veteran John Turturro add intriguing elements to the race. In Best Actress, Carrie Coon's performance in "The Liberation" and Inde Navarrette's breakout role in "Obsession" are singled out as leading candidates. European actresses like Virginie Efira ("All of a Sudden"), Léa Seydoux ("Gentle Monster"), Kate O'Flynn ("Tender Loving Care"), and Sandra Hüller (for both "Rose" and "Fatherland") also feature prominently, with Hüller benefiting from a rule change allowing multiple nominations in the same category for different performances.

The screenplay categories, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay, are shaping up to be highly competitive. While "The Odyssey" is a Best Picture frontrunner, its script may be polarizing, opening opportunities for films like "Project Hail Mary" or "The Invite" in the adapted category. Works from renowned screenwriters like Aaron Sorkin ("The Social Reckoning") and Peter Farrelly ("I Play Rocky") are also expected to challenge. In original screenplay, Mike Leigh's "Tender Loving Care" is a strong candidate, alongside Martin McDonagh's "Wild Horse Nine," Cristian Mungiu's "Fjord," and James Gray's "Paper Tiger."

The International Feature Film category sees a diverse array of submissions from around the globe, with Spain's "La Bola Negra," Romania's "Fjord," and Poland's "Fatherland" leading the charge. Japan's "All of a Sudden" and France's "Minotaur" are also strong contenders, benefiting from major festival wins and new eligibility rules. The documentary features category is poised for an unpredictable race, with "Once Upon a Time in Harlem" emerging as a unique and powerful entry. Other documentaries like "Musk," "American Doctor," and "One in a Million" are garnering significant attention for their artistic ambition and compelling narratives.

In animated features, "Toy Story 5" is positioned as a likely winner, continuing the franchise's legacy of Oscar success. "Ray Gunn" and "Iron Boy" are also noted as strong contenders. Original Song features a highly anticipated entry from Taylor Swift for "Toy Story 5," signaling a strong likelihood for its nomination. The Original Score category showcases established talents like Ludwig Göransson ("The Odyssey") and Daniel Pemberton ("Project Hail Mary"), alongside legendary composers such as Randy Newman ("Toy Story 5") and John Williams ("Disclosure Day").

The technical categories, including Best Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects, highlight the intricate craftsmanship behind cinematic productions. For casting, the Academy may reward films like "La Bola Negra," "Obsession," or "Michael" that feature relative unknowns, contrasting with "The Odyssey"'s established ensemble. Cinematography sees a battle between masters like Hoyte van Hoytema ("The Odyssey") and Greig Fraser ("Project Hail Mary"), with a potential nod to black-and-white films. Costume Design favors period and fantasy works, while Makeup & Hairstyling often recognizes transformations of famous actors. Production Design tends to honor large-scale world-building, and Sound and Visual Effects categories are likely to be dominated by blockbusters and visually ambitious projects like "Dune: Part Three."

As the Oscar season progresses, the early assessments provided by the Feinberg Forecast will undoubtedly evolve. However, this initial outlook offers a valuable snapshot of the leading contenders and emerging narratives that will shape the 2026-2027 Academy Awards. The coming months, filled with more festival premieres, critical reviews, and industry buzz, will further clarify which films and artists will ultimately vie for Oscar glory.